ANALYSIS | COP30 failed to land a deal on the fossil fuel transition. Countries are moving forward anyway | CBC News

In 2022, the world watched in shock as cataclysmic floods driven by melting glaciers tore through Pakistan, displacing up to a third of the country’s population and leaving essential power infrastructure in ruins.

To recover, people turned to clean energy — solar in particular. The province of Sindh rebuilt homes with solar panels on their roofs, and people ordered panels directly from China. Pakistanis were so enthusiastic about this energy source that in 2024, they added 22 gigawatts’ worth of solar power — more than Canada has ever installed.

It’s an example of how the shift to renewable energy is accelerating across the world, especially in developing countries taking advantage of falling prices for solar and wind power. 

This rush comes at the same time that the U.S., the world’s largest oil producer, is doubling down on fossil fuels and trying to get more of the world to buy its carbon-emitting energy.

At COP30, the UN climate summit in Belem, Brazil, last week, negotiating a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels was unexpectedly added to the agenda after being missing from the conversation in the run-up to the summit.

Countries failed to reach a deal, but analysts say the fact it became such a big negotiating point shows there’s global momentum to move away from fossil fuels.

About 80 countries signed onto a proposal for a transition deal, including major European economies and developing countries vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

“That just shows the world is not at where [U.S. President] Donald Trump is at. The majority of the world moves forward,” said Andreas Sieber, a policy expert at 350.org, a global environmental organization advocating for a transition to clean energy.

“Twenty-five per cent of China’s economic growth comes from green tech. India is aiming to build its huge own solar industry,” Sieber said. “So we know the direction to go. It’s just about speeding it up.”

Fossils, renewables both on the rise

The world is teetering dangerously close to breaching 1.5 C of global warming, the limit that countries agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement was required to stave off the worst impacts of climate change. Meanwhile, global fossil fuel emissions have continued to rise, and are now 10 per cent higher than in 2015.

China accounts for nearly a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, thanks to its coal-fired power plants and power-hungry industrial base.

At the same time, the shift to renewables seems more inevitable as costs fall. In the first half of 2025, renewables produced 34.3 per cent of the world’s electricity, surpassing coal for the first time. Overall global renewable power capacity is set to double in the next five years, a massive increase.

At COP30, delegates reportedly flocked to China’s pavilion as countries tried to get in on the cheap, renewable energy revolution. The country has a commanding lead on global electric vehicle production, accounting for 70 per cent of the market, has driven down costs for solar panels and controls much of the world’s supply of critical minerals used in clean energy technologies, according to analyses from the International Energy Agency.

“It’s not only about phasing out fossil fuels, it is also about a better, cleaner alternative,” Sieber said.

The sticking point, Sieber says, is subsidies for fossil fuels worldwide. Depending on what’s considered a subsidy — direct payments and supports for producing oil and gas to more indirect support and tax breaks — they add up to between $1.5 trillion and $7 trillion US per year.

“It’s a key blocker for more progress. We already see that renewables outperform fossil fuels across the globe, on average [on price],” Sieber said.

“But that transition is slower, and one key reason for that is in fact the subsidies for fossil fuels.”

Without the U.S., a multi-polar world

For the first time, the U.S. did not send any representatives to this year’s UN climate summit. The absence of American diplomatic heft is unusual for a conference as large as COP30, but analysts say it has opened up a space for other countries to fill. 

“It is definitely looking like a multipolar climate leadership is emerging. No single new leader, so to say, but a distributed leadership model,” said Indu K. Murthy, the climate, environment and sustainability head at the Indian think-tank Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy.

Murthy said that while China has expanded its diplomatic and technological influence, other countries have also moved in. As the host of COP30, Brazil is using its position to push forest conservation, while India is focusing on equity and scaled-up adaptation finance and is acting as a bridge between developed and developing countries at climate negotiations.

The U.S. has played an important role in discussions around climate finance, given its dominant role in the global financial system, Murthy said. She said the U.S. absence this year may have widened the gap between wealthy and developing countries, shifting the centre of gravity to countries like India, China or Brazil to push their own priorities.

What’s next for fossil fuel transition?

After an initial burst of enthusiasm, strong opposition from Saudi Arabia and other petrostates effectively stalled an agreement on fossil fuel transition at COP30.

Next year, Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the first international summit focused on transitioning away from fossil fuels, trying to build on the support from more than 80 countries that signed onto the proposal during COP30. 

“The majority of the world just moves forward because it’s the right thing to do, but also just because it’s economic self-interest,” Sieber said.

Future discussions on the fossil fuel transition will look at a roadmap, which would include things like milestones to keep countries accountable along the way, and finance for investing in clean energy. 

Olivia Bisel, energy analyst at the London-based think-tank Carbon Tracker, recently worked on a report that looks at how the continuing shift to renewables is making investing in oil and gas projects in Canada more financially risky.

“The market is moving whether you like it or not,” she said, pointing to the fast pace of clean energy adoption in developing countries and questioning the recent push for more pipelines in Canada.

“It’s easy for governments to turn to what has worked in the past to save them in the future,” Bisel said. “However, we’re in a changing world. That strategy has no guarantee of success in a world where energy demand is completely transformed.”