We have lost around half of the voters who supported us last July. Voters are leaving us because life is unaffordable and they want transformational change. Most of our lost voters are going to the left – to the Greens, the Lib Dems – or to undecided, while a smaller but significant portion of our vote has gone to Reform. But we can win these voters back. We need to unite our coalition, getting both sets of radical defecting voters onside. We can do this with a strong offer of making life affordable and a vision of Britishness founded in collective strength.
Since July 2024, we have lost far more voters to the left than to Reform. Of the 50% of voters who have left us, around 20% have gone to the Lib Dems/the Greens, around 20% to Don’t Know (who are sceptical of Reform) and around 10% have gone to Reform.
Reform’s gain in the polls is not driven by them picking up Labour voters. Instead, they are picking up non-voters (31% of their gains) and Conservatives (42% of their gains). Many non-voters are being politically engaged online, seduced by far-right rhetoric reminiscent of the 1930’s that makes sense of their frustrations. Only ten percent of Reform’s current vote comes from Labour’s July 2024 voters.
‘Affordability-driven angst is driving up support for populists worldwide’
Voters who are finding life unaffordable are the most likely to be leaving us. They are frightened of being unable to pay the bills, frustrated that working hard doesn’t mean living well, and furious at a political elite who cannot seem to address their issues. The group of voters who are frightened, frustrated and furious is growing, as more and more cannot pay their bills. Making life affordable for them matters.
The old left vs. right paradigm is dying as affordability-driven angst is driving up support for populists across the globe. The new political divide is between mainstream centrist voters (who are financially comfortable and happy with the status quo) vs. radical voters (who want transformational change to make life affordable). A simplified version is given below.
We in Labour are currently keeping mainstream voters, while populist parties on the left (Green) and right (Reform) are hoovering up radical support. The radical left is picking up young renters who can’t afford housing, the radical right is picking up voters from non-graduates who can’t get decent jobs. We can only win if we keep the mainstream and pick up those radical voters who are finding life unaffordable.
‘Tackling small boats crisis crucial, but must not alienate left-minded voters’
Affordability is the number one issue defecting voters cite for leaving us, followed by not delivering on change. I cannot stress enough how much making life more affordable for them is the key to winning again. If we do not make life affordable, we cannot expect their support in 2029. But after the cost-of-living, our defectors to the left and right are leaving us for different reasons.
On the left, defectors say Labour has been “too right wing” in office. These Greens/Lib Dem defectors are also far more winnable for us than Reform defectors. Around 60% of these defectors are already open to voting for us next time. Even 30% of those who voted Green in 2024 are open to voting for us next time, while 60% would consider a left-wing alternative.
Those who have moved to undecided are considering voting a wide range of parties but, crucially, few are considering voting for Reform or the Conservatives. They might be a bit less winnable than our Green/Lib Dem defectors are, but they are not lost for good.
The voters we are losing to Reform are the hardest to win back. Just 13% said they would consider voting Labour at the next election and 42% said there is nothing Labour could do to win them back. Labour to Reform defectors are small in the context of our overall losses (around 10% of our 2024 vote share) but these defectors will count double in most of our contests at the next election.
These Reform defectors are, unsurprisingly, deeply concerned about migration (which we can read as small boats crossing). Tackling the small boats crisis is crucial to getting these voters back, but we must not alienate our left-minded voters in the process.
Concerns about migration also stem from affordability. When people who cannot afford the basics, they draw inward and want to protect what is theirs. As one Reform voter said in a focus group:
“It’s not about being racist. It’s about looking after all the people in this country who are poor, starving. We can’t keep supporting everybody.”
READ MORE: ‘Cut bills, build trust: the new formula for progressive politics’
‘Politics is not a paint-by-numbers game’
If making life affordable is seen as a zero-sum game, either a migrant gets a house, food and warmth or I do, anti-immigration sentiments rise. As my colleague Liam Byrne and pollsters like Steve Akehurst have found, it is economic messages on affordability as well as (surprisingly) positive Net Zero messages that work best with Reform-curious voters. Making life affordable again matters.
Winning radical voters back starts with bringing costs down. For the young renters going Green, we can get housing costs down by building (a lot more) social homes. For those going to Reform, that means creating good jobs in post-industrial areas as we are with our Clean Energy Plan. For all voters, getting down energy bills with cleaner, cheaper energy will make life affordable again.
More than this, building a winning coalition also means binding the radicals we are losing together with one vision. Politics is not a paint-by-numbers game. We can’t offer one policy to one group, another policy to another, and say it all adds up to winning.
‘Win back voters by making life affordable and with a unified vision of what it means to be British’
At this moment of deep division, our vision must define what it means to be British, and who is British. Being British is partly about legal status. But it’s also about our values, our traditions, and how we come together as one British people.
Unity, decency, and determination are our common British values. It was by living up to these values that we protected democracy in Europe. It was that same spirit that saw us persevere through a pandemic. Beyond those great moments, the national moments that bring us together – during the Olympics, football tournaments, and now the Traitors. And the small moments – a cup of tea, a pint, queuing politely. Communities may look different but we come together as one British people in these moments, big and small. Stronger when we stand together, weaker when we stand apart.
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Our vision of Britishness also acknowledges the strengths and limitations of migration. We are proud of how different communities have contributed to this country. It does not matter what you look like. What matters is how you act and the values you hold. We welcome and value the contribution of those allowed to come. And we have a strong border to determine who can come and those who cannot. We can only draw together the radical left and right voters we are losing through this vision.
We also must define who we are against. We stand against the populists who seek to divide our nation. Who blame all our problems on other groups. Whether it’s blaming immigrants as Farage does or blaming corporations as Polanski does. Their vision is one of division leading to collective weakness. It is a vision we reject.
We are losing voters who cannot afford the basics and want radical change. Beyond that, different voters are leaving us for different reasons. Those going to the radical left think we are too right wing. Those on the radical right want us to do more on migration. We can win both sets of voters back by making life affordable and with a unified vision of what it means to be British. It is a vison of Britishness founded in our collective strength that can bring them back to us. That is how we win back our lost voters and win the next election.
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