📊Today Forex Outlook – Updated for “Wednesday, October 29, 2025″💹
Hello traders around the world, greetings from Tokyo—AI Trader KYO here.
This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
I sincerely apologize for my long absence—it’s been nearly six months since my last post. During this time, I’ve been dedicating myself to intensive research and system refinement to significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of my AI-driven trading strategies. I’ve upgraded my analytical framework, enhanced the AI models, and implemented more sophisticated risk management protocols. I’m excited to be back and share these enhanced insights with you all.
Thank you for your patience and continued support. Let’s dive into today’s market outlook together!
Trading Results – “Tuesday, October 28, 2025”
Let’s review the trading outcomes based on yesterday’s economic indicator releases along with the cumulative results by star rating for the day.
Key Economic Indicators & Forecasts – October 29, 2025
Market Context: Today features a rare dual central bank rate decision day with both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada cutting rates. The Fed’s 25bp cut is 99% priced in, making Powell’s press conference tone critical. Meanwhile, the BOC faces an 18% hold risk despite 82% cut expectations, with core CPI running 55% above target. EUR/USD implied volatility sits at 11-month lows (6-7%), while USD/CAD overnight IV spikes to 14.5 (±88 pips), signaling extreme event risk.
| Today’s Economic Indicators (Date/Time) | Target Currency Pairs | Forecast & Strategy | Confidence (★ Rating) | Expected Move (pips) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 (Tuesday) 11:30 PM ET RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby Speech | NZD/USD | Hawkesby acting as de facto governor with decision-making authority. RBNZ maintains extreme dovish stance targeting OCR 2.5% by year-end amid -0.9% Q2 growth. Consider shorting (Sell NZD/USD) 5 minutes before speech if further rate cut acceleration signals emerge (60% probability). Exit within 2 minutes post-remarks. | ★★★☆☆ | 40 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 10:00 AM ET US Pending Home Sales (MoM, September) | USD/JPY | Forecast 1.7% vs. prior 4.0% shows sharp deceleration amid 6.3% mortgage rates and housing affordability index at 75. Minimal trade recommended. If data prints near zero, consider brief short (Sell USD/JPY) on recession fears, but position size should be 25% of normal given low volatility. No pre-release entry advised. | ★★☆☆☆ | 15 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 9:45 AM ET Bank of Canada Rate Decision | USD/CAD | 25bp cut to 2.25% is 82% priced but incomplete—core CPI at 3.1-3.2% (55% above target) leaves 18% hold risk. Overnight IV at 14.5 implies ±88 pips. Consider buying (Long USD/CAD) 5 minutes before decision targeting 1.4000-1.4080 on dovish cut. CRITICAL: Use tight stop-loss at 1.3880 due to 18% surprise hold risk which could trigger 80-130 pip reversal. Exit 30 seconds after release or hold through 10:30 AM press conference for extended move. | ★★★★☆ | 88 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 9:45 AM ET BOC Rate Statement & Monetary Policy Report | USD/CAD | (Combined with rate decision above) Focus on inflation vs. growth balance in statement. If December cut probability rises from 40%, CAD sells off further. Governor Macklem’s continued “trade risk emphasis” signals dovish tilt. If 2026 terminal rate forecast moves below 2.0%, adds 20-30 pips to USD/CAD upside. | ★★★★☆ | (included above) |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 10:30 AM ET BOC Governor Macklem Press Conference | USD/CAD | Higher volatility driver than statement itself. Forward guidance and Q&A determine December rate path (currently 40% cut priced). Consider adding to long USD/CAD position 2 minutes before presser if initial decision was dovish. If Macklem signals hawkish pivot, expect 40-60 pip CAD snap-back rally. Close all positions within 5 minutes of presser end to avoid whipsaw. | ★★★★☆ | 60 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 10:30 AM ET US Crude Oil Inventories | USD/CAD | Secondary driver occurring simultaneously with BOC presser. Large inventory build = CAD sell-off, large draw = CAD bid. Direct oil-CAD correlation but overshadowed by BOC event. No standalone trade recommended—treat as noise filter for BOC position management. | ★★☆☆☆ | 20 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve Rate Decision & FOMC Statement | EUR/USD | 25bp cut to 4.00% is 99% fully priced. Statement wording on “labor market downside risks” and updated dot plot are key. DO NOT TRADE the first 5 minutes (2:00-2:05 PM) due to whipsaw risk and false breakouts. If statement shows dissent votes or dovish tilt (80% base case), consider buying (Long EUR/USD) at 2:06 PM targeting 1.1680-1.1730. Exit before 2:30 PM Powell presser begins. | ★★★☆☆ | 50 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve Rate Decision & FOMC Statement | USD/JPY | Rate cut fully priced; statement tone determines direction. With BoJ 25bp hike (0.50% → 0.75%) expected tomorrow at 10:00 PM ET, dual central bank divergence setup favors JPY. Consider shorting (Sell USD/JPY) at 2:06 PM if statement emphasizes labor risks (80% scenario), targeting 150.00 break toward 148-149 over 24-48 hours. AVOID 2:00-2:05 PM window. If QT-ending announced, adds mild USD sell pressure. | ★★★☆☆ | 70 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 2:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Press Conference | EUR/USD | HIGHEST VOLATILITY DRIVER of the day. Powell’s October 14 dovish pivot likely continues (80% probability). Consider buying (Long EUR/USD) 3 minutes before presser (2:27 PM) if you anticipate labor market downside emphasis. Optimal edge zone: 30-45 minutes into Q&A (3:00-3:15 PM) when tone clarifies. Key phrases: “data-dependent” (neutral), labor market focus (dovish = EUR bid), “opportunistic pricing” inflation concern (5% hawkish surprise = 60-90 pip reversal). If December 50bp cut mentioned, EUR/USD rallies 100+ pips to 1.1750-1.1830. | ★★★★☆ | 90 |
| October 29 (Wednesday) 2:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Press Conference | USD/JPY | MAXIMUM IMPACT EVENT for USD/JPY. Powell presser tone + tomorrow’s BoJ hike create 24-hour dual shock. Consider shorting (Sell USD/JPY) 3 minutes before presser (2:27 PM) if you expect dovish continuation from his October 14 speech (80% base case). Target 150.00 support break; next levels 148-149 by Thursday night. CRITICAL: If Powell emphasizes inflation/”opportunistic pricing” (5% probability), triggers 70-100 pip reversal—use 50-pip stop-loss above 152.00. Best strategy: Wait for 3:00-3:15 PM Q&A clarity before committing full position size. | ★★★★☆ | 120 |
Risk Management Priorities:
- 9:45-10:30 AM ET (BOC Cluster): USD/CAD carries highest event risk (±88 pips implied). The 18% hold probability is NOT negligible—use 50% position sizing and strict stop-loss at 1.3880.
- 2:00-3:30 PM ET (FOMC Window): Absolutely avoid trading 2:00-2:05 PM (statement release) due to liquidity gaps and instant reversals. Powell presser (2:30 PM onward) offers best risk/reward 30-45 minutes into Q&A.
- Volatility Compression Unwind Risk: EUR/USD IV at 11-month lows signals market complacency. Surprise outcomes trigger violent unwinds—consider long volatility strategies (options) for asymmetric payoff.
- 24-Hour USD/JPY Setup: Fed dovish + BoJ hike (tomorrow 10:00 PM ET) = dual directional catalyst for 150-200 pip downside to 148-149 zone.
Additional Notes
– The “Forecast & Strategy” column provides a simplified directional view (e.g., “Long (Buy)” or “Short (Sell)”) based on market-implied probabilities from rate futures (CME/ICE), FX option volatility (CVOL), and yield curve positioning.
– The star rating reflects potential market impact and information asymmetry, NOT certainty of direction. ★★★★★ trades do not exist today due to dual-sided risks (BOC 18% hold, FOMC guidance-dependent).
– All strategies assume pre-release positioning. Post-release fading is NOT covered to avoid overtrading during high-volatility windows.
– Government shutdown (week 4) means September jobs data unavailable—Fed decision relies on “available data” only, increasing cautious tone probability.
– Always consider spreads widening 2-8x during events, slippage on stop-losses, and use 50% normal position size during 9:45 AM and 2:00 PM windows. Trade responsibly at your own risk.
If you have any requests or want to know more about cryptocurrency outlooks, BoJ reaction strategies for tomorrow’s decision, or detailed option volatility trades, feel free to let me know in the comments!
Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades!
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