Teal and green waves put safe seat on knife edge as ex-council chief quits – LabourList

When Andy Moorhead became leader of Knowsley council, a hotchpotch of post-industrial towns clustered around Liverpool, Labour held every ward in England’s second most deprived authority.

Today, the former Corbynite children’s care worker is considering standing for Reform – and warns Labour’s half-century of majority control could end by 2027.

Perhaps he would say that. But two recent MRPs reveal even in the strongest of strongholds, many voters are thinking the unthinkable.

Labour’s lead over Reform in its ten ‘safest’ seats now averages just four percentage points, LabourList analysis of PLMR’s poll shows.

Three, all on Merseyside, are even projected to fall. The poll suggests tactical voting may save Labour, but in one, Reform is still just 0.8 percentage points shy of victory: Widnes and Halewood.

Red alarms and green shoots in the 10th safest seat

On a recent visit, LabourList found not only rage over illegal immigration, winter fuel and broken promises, but newer warning signs too – from hostility to digital ID to enthusiasm for the new-look Greens.

With the poll suggesting Labour’s 16,425-vote majority would collapse to just 543 votes today, such further headaches could prove fatal unless Labour changes gear.

There are glimmers of hope, though. Even Reform-tempted voters appeared more balanced and uncertain about immigration – and Nigel Farage – than commonly portrayed. Meanwhile politicians hope more cash in people’s pockets, Pride in Place initiatives and other tangible gains will help ‘delivery’ finally cut through.

Polanski’s shadow on the doorstep

Stood with his arms folded on his Halewood driveway, Peter Francis says he normally votes Labour.

Nowadays he’s considering voting Green. “I don’t like what [Keir Starmer] did with Palestine. He could have been their champion.”

Halewood falls under Knowsley council, while the constituency’s larger town, Widnes, falls under Halton.

Former Halton mayor Kevan Wainwright says doorstep support for Zack Polanski’s party is rising in his Widnes ward, echoing national polls. “He’s been more vocal than any leader they’ve had, and he’s getting his message across.”

Wainwright predicts May’s elections will be “close” in every Widnes seat with Reform and the Greens.

Heavy reliance on the progressive squeeze

Meanwhile if Your Party candidates stand any chance of retaining deposits, Merseyside feels a good bet in 2029.

One man “waiting to see” its next steps is John, a parts maker at a supplier for the town’s biggest employer Jaguar Land Rover.

Out jogging with his dog while on furlough – with JLR then shuttered by a cyber-attack – he suggests only Jeremy Corbyn might tempt him to vote. “Corbyn was the first politician interested in doing some good. Starmer backed Corbyn, then went against everything he said he’d do.”

PLMR puts the Greens and Your Party on 15% combined locally. A question on tactical voting cuts this to 5%. But if that squeeze fell a whisker short, Labour would lose.

Violent rhetoric on asylum

Squeezing liberal progressives looks ever harder, with some not just enticed by Polanski but alienated by Labour’s rightward drift.  “He’s too bothered about Reform, isn’t he? Labour’s lost its way,” says Francis.

Yet Labour is battling two fronts. Just yards away outside a school moments earlier, one father at the wheel of his SUV leant over his son to answer when asked what he made of Labour. “Starmer needs f***ing hanging, along with all the other c***s on the boats,” he shouted before speeding off.

A mother on the school run, Nicola Du Toit, says she may vote Reform, with immigration “the driving force”.

“It’s even reaching this area. Why not come here, you can get everything handed to you,” the children’s home supervisor says.

Another parent says asylum seekers and children’s safety are a “big concern”, even if she had not heard of local incidents involving them.

Even in an area 97% British in 2021 at least, “lots of people seem to be warming towards Reform,” Du Toit says, including some unexpected converts.

The red-tied town hall chief now backing Farage

Few certainly would have expected softly spoken Moorhead, still governing Halewood for Labour in 2018, to now be canvassing and litter-picking with colleagues in teal vests.

Winter fuel cuts were a push factor, as for many other locals interviewed, but not the only one. The Brexiteer shares local concerns over asylum, with providing accommodation “right” but current levels “unmanageable”.

Meanwhile he accuses Labour of having “shut up shop” on grooming gangs, gone too fast on net zero, and allowed “ridiculous” welfare spending and train driver pay hikes.

While Labour hopes digital ID can help tackle illegal immigration, multiple voters voiced not only scepticism but cynicism about ulterior motives. “That’s coming up on the doorstep. People are not happy,” Wainwright warns.

Tough on Reform, tough on its causes – can it work?

Immigration anxiety does not guarantee Reform support, however.

Doorstep conversations – and polling – suggest attitudes remain strikingly nuanced and conflicted, and promisingly wary about Farage. Starmer’s new conference tightrope – tough on Reform, tough on its causes – is perilous but has potential, for all that some MPs complain of government “swithering”, and one Reform voter prickles at feeling she was being called “racist”.

“If you say or imply people cannot be English or British because of the colour of their skin…if you say they should be deported, then mark my words, we will fight you with everything we have.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer tells the Labour Party conference that inciting… pic.twitter.com/jtj0h7nygz

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) September 30, 2025

Several former Labour voters say they’re comfortable with legal migration. One says “every society is built on migration” moments after calling local migration “scary”. Support for Farage is “scary” too as it’s “more racially based”, even if he’s “making sense”. Another calls him “the best of a bad bunch”.

John says he’s “on the fence”, explaining: “People who need to flee, we should help. But you seem to see a lot of crime coming from them. And where are the women and children? But we have our own [criminals], and how do you vet for it? And you don’t know whether you’re falling for propaganda.”

Labour can campaign on tangible gains

Labour can also highlight Reform councils’ troubles, Wainwright suggests.

Meanwhile he and local MP Derek Twigg are campaigning on the £21.5m Widnes will get in Pride in Place funding, with over a dozen Merseyside projects selected.

The cash signals lessons are being learnt from Australia’s and America’s left – make change local, visible and visibly attributable to government.

Wainwright hopes expanding family centres can show similarly tangible benefits. One voter praised recent government support for JLR, too, and Moorhead praised “phenomenal” housebuilding rates in Knowsley.

Gary See, a former Labour councillor now running Halewood’s New Hutte community centre, argues expanding free school meals next year will be “massive”, and other policies are already reaping rewards.

While he’s encountered one family using free half-term swimming sessions just for the hot showers, and another sharing a loaf of bread for dinner, demand for his charity’s help is starting to fall.

LabourList analysis shows average annual earnings have increased £2,000 since Labour took power, versus a £1,500 rise over a similar period pre-election.

What’s more, many charities like his previously faced a “constant Ferris wheel” of six-monthly applications and reporting for funding to help households in crisis. Labour’s under-appreciated shift to three-year settlements cuts paperwork, uncertainty and pressure for quick fixes – allowing See to offer staff longer-term contracts and clients longer-term support.

“If a family said they need food, our answer had been giving food. Now we can also say, what can we do to support you to not need to come back?”

See emphasises the difference between TDCA’s pay-what-you-can “social supermarket” and foodbanks. “You don’t just get given bags, you pick, you make a contribution. You have the respect and dignity everybody else gets.”

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The trust gap and roll-the-dice politics

That shift beyond a “handout state” alone, as See puts it, arguably chimes with Starmer’s conference promise of a “land of dignity and respect”.

The trouble is, Labour needs cut-through, credit and a clearer narrative uniting such disparate policies to reap rewards electorally.

See notes people “probably don’t acknowledge” small income gains, while Labour achievements are “totally washed over” by journalists. Wainwright agrees positives “aren’t getting through.”

Politicians can only pray lost trust isn’t terminal. “I used to follow politics, but backed off once promises started getting broken,” says one 2024 Labour voter. This is a Labour area, but everyone’s let down. If you lose Liverpool, that’s it.”

Francis says people he knows are “stepping away from politics” too, with Brexit and Labour proving “false dawns”. Du Toit says she and others want “something completely different”. Both resonate with public appetite for what pollsters call “roll-the-dice politics”.

Du Toit notably brings up Andy Burnham unprompted, though.

“You feel confidence in him somehow. A lot’s to do with people in charge. I’m not closed-minded.”

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