The appearance of mysterious drones in the skies over major airports in several European cities this week represents a new and worrying challenge for NATO.
The airborne objects, which have appeared at night and then dropped out of sight, have caused massive disruptions to commercial air travel in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, and sparked a multinational effort to track down their origins.
The latest incident in Denmark’s northern Jutland region overnight on Wednesday closed civilian flights into Aalborg airport.
Danish officials have said that while they’ve been unable to identify the operators of the drones, whoever was flying them was capable and professional, and that it amounts to a “hybrid attack” on the country.
It’s also unclear whether the drones were launched on land or from ships at sea.
Russian officials deny they were behind the incursions, but given their repeated use of such hybrid tactics in the past, Kremlin complicity is the most credible working theory.
Indeed, coming on the heels of confirmed Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania, along with Russian MiG fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, some security analysts feel comfortable making the direct link.
“It’s all connected,” Ofer Fridman, a lecturer in King’s College London’s war studies department, told CBC News.
Natasha Linsteadt, who specializes in the study of authoritarian regimes at the University of Essex, also believes the drone operation has the hallmarks of Russia’s special services.
“My initial thought is this has to be Russia,” she told CBC News. “I know this hasn’t been confirmed yet, but what the Danish government was saying was, whoever’s operating these drones has a high level of capacity and know-how. And this really fits into what Russia has typically engaged in.”
Fridman said “it’s part of psychological warfare — they [Russia] are trying to incite some kind of response.”
The great bluff
But how should European countries respond? And what does Russian President Vladimir Putin hope to achieve with all these provocations?
Fridman says Putin sees Russia as a great power, both militarily and economically, and demands other countries give it the respect that comes with such status.
Nonetheless, Russia’s ruling class accepts their country is a weaker great power than the United States and the combined forces of the European members of NATO, Fridman says, so Russia resorts to hybrid tactics such as drone incursions to project its military force in a way that demonstrates Russian strength without triggering a potential war.
Put another way, Fridman says Putin is bluffing.
“You’re trying to play cards that you don’t have — to make an impression that you are stronger than you are,” he said.
“They are trying to inflict a reaction on our side that will give them an opportunity to win or improve their lot — so we need to be very careful we don’t do that.”
So far, the European response has taken several forms, both political and military.
On Sept. 9, Dutch and Polish jets shot down several of the 19 or so Russian drones that flew into Poland. The following week, Italian F-35s chased away Russian jets that flew over Estonia — but notably did not open fire.
Poland is rejecting the claim that Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace by accident and says the move is reckless and could lead to potential escalation.
Subsequently, Great Britain said two of its fighters would provide extra air cover for the Polish city of Warsaw, which was followed by NATO’s announcement of the establishment of “Operation Eastern Sentry.”
The aim is to bolster air defences in countries closest to Russia, with Denmark, France and Germany among the countries stepping up anti-aircraft contributions to the “eastern flank.”
Poland’s foreign minister also used a UN Security Council Meeting on Tuesday to deliver an ultimatum to Russia’s ambassador, demanding the provocations stop.
“If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it,” said Radek Sikorski. “You have been warned.”
NATO counter-measures
The only time a NATO country has followed through on the threat to use lethal force against a Russian aircraft came in 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian jet that crossed its border near Syria.
Putin and his officials were furious, and reacted by imposing a variety of political and economic sanctions on Turkey. But they notably took no direct military action.
Marcus Kolga, a Canadian expert on Russian hybrid warfare with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, believes that so far, NATO’s responses to the Russian actions, both confirmed and presumed, have been appropriate and effective.
“Just as Russia bombs civilian targets to wear down morale among Ukrainians, so, too, are these operations intended to wear down Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, etc.,” Kolga told CBC News in an email.
“However, I don’t think that it’s really working.”
Kolga said “the presence and effectiveness of NATO air policing — as we saw in Estonia and Poland — and the presence of NATO troops — like Canada in Latvia — significantly blunts Russia’s efforts and their impact.”
Latvia is home to Canada’s largest overseas military deployment, with more than 2,200 personnel as part of NATO’s Operation Reassurance, although it doesn’t appear Canadian Forces have been directly involved in intercepting any of Russia’s recent incursions.
Fridman says from the Kremlin’s vantage point, the provocations against NATO countries are likely accomplishing their purpose, by projecting power and impressing a domestic audience.
“‘The strong rule’ is the rule of the Kremlin — if you are ‘great,’ people will appreciate you,” Fridman said.
Doves vs. hawks
Still, there are disagreements within NATO over how hard to push back against Russia.
While Poland has been hawkish, German officials have sounded more tempered.
“This is an escalation trap we’re supposed to fall into. We won’t do Russian President Vladimir Putin that favour,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told a press conference in Berlin.
On the other hand, Ukraine’s leaders have implored NATO to be more decisive.
In his speech to the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Putin will expand the war against his country into surrounding nations unless the military alliance takes more forceful actions immediately.
“If it takes weapons to do it, if it takes pressure on Russia, then it must be done. And it must be done now. Otherwise, Putin will keep driving the war forward — wider and deeper,” said Zelenskyy.
Another intriguing aspect of the Russian hybrid action is the timing. There are widespread concerns within NATO about the U.S.’s commitment to the 76-year-old transatlantic alliance, and Putin may be trying to exploit those divisions by creating a series of tests and watching how countries respond.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that while NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace, he was equivocal about whether U.S. forces would be there to back up their European allies if they did.
“It depends on the circumstance,” said Trump.
Several analysts, including Lindsteadt at the University of Essex, have also speculated that Russia’s increasing use of drones and jets against Western Europe may reflect its inability to make substantial gains on the battlefield in Ukraine.
According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a D.C.-based think-tank, Russia is believed to have suffered more than a million dead and wounded over the past three and a half years of war in Ukraine.
Kolga at the Macdonald-Laurier Institue says the current hybrid actions could “serve as a domestic distraction” from the mounting costs of fighting Ukraine.
“Russian interest rates and inflation are skyrocketing, income taxes are increasing, oil revenues are dropping and state debt is set to increase significantly,” he said.
“Putin does need a distraction from all of this.”
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