Russia-Belarus military drill tests nerves on NATO’s eastern flank at the end of a tense week – Egypt Independent

Alarms bells sounded this week in Europe after NATO jets scrambled to intercept an unprecedented Russian drone incursion in Poland. Now there is fresh unease on NATO’s eastern flank, as Russia and Belarus kick off major military drills to test the readiness of their armed forces.

Friday marks the start of the main phase of Zapad-2025, which the Russian Ministry of Defense described as a strategic exercise in “repelling aggression against the Union State,” the official title for the wide-ranging alliance between Minsk and Moscow. The joint maneuvers will take place at training ranges in Russia and Belarus, as well as in the waters of the Baltic and Barents Seas.

Neighbors of Russia and Belarus are currently on edge because of the breach of Polish airspace early Wednesday by Russian drones. And the incident, which triggered NATO Article 4, put a renewed spotlight on the role Belarus plays as Russia’s junior military partner: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a “large proportion” of the drones that entered Poland flew in from Belarus.

In a news conference at the Terespol-Brest border crossing, Polish Minister of the Interior and Administration Marcin Kierwinski announced that traffic had been closed as of midnight Thursday on the Polish-Belarusian border until further notice. Belarus state news agency Belta posted footage of Polish personnel stringing concertina wire and putting up barriers overnight.

The Polish government’s decision, Kierwinski said, was related directly to the Zapad exercises, which he said were directly aimed at Poland and the European Union.

“During these exercises, the Russian and Belarusian armies are practicing aggressive scenarios against our country,” he said. “We will resume operations when we are certain that the safety of Poles is guaranteed and that no provocations threaten us.”

The Russian military, for its part, has cast the scenario for Zapad – which translates as “West” – as defensive in nature. And Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the decisions to close the Polish-Belarusian border “confrontational steps” that were meant to “justify a policy of further escalating tensions in the center of Europe.”

But Poland and its NATO allies are also extremely wary of the joint military drills because of the precedent set during the last set of Zapad drills in 2021, which Western military officials now say served as a screen for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Zapad exercises in September 2021 were preceded in the spring by a massive military buildup near Russia’s border with Ukraine. At that time, some Russian heavy weapons – including tanks and heavy artillery – were left parked near the border, ostensibly for the Zapad exercises that would take place later in the year. That firepower, ultimately, would be directed at Ukraine.

How large is the current Zapad exercise compared with the previous iteration in 2021? In a recent interview on Lithuanian television, Lithuanian military intelligence Col. Mindaugas Mažonas said that the exercise would be significantly smaller than the Zapad 2021 exercise, with 30,000 Belarusian and Russian service members in total taking part, and only 8,000 troops – 2,000 of whom would be Russian – carrying out drills on Belarusian soil.

Those numbers pale in comparison with Zapad-2021, in which around 200,000 personnel, plus 80 aircraft and helicopters, 290 tanks and 240 artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems and mortars participated, according to an archived web page published by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The diminished Russian presence in Zapad-2025 is easily explained: The bulk of Russian combat power is tied up in the bloody, grinding war in Ukraine, particularly in the eastern Donbas region. But that does not mean there is less concern in Eastern Europe and the Baltics about Russian intentions.

While US President Donald Trump’s response to the heightened tensions on Europe’s eastern edge has been relatively muted – he suggested Thursday that Russia’s drone incursion into Poland “could have been a mistake” – Poland and many of its NATO allies say they see deliberate probing by Moscow to test the alliance’s resolve.

Responding to Trump, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was blunt: “No, it wasn’t.”

Polish Prime Minister Tusk repeated that sentiment Friday, saying in a social media post, “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”

Still, amid consternation about Russia’s intentions, Belarus appears to be attempting something of a balancing act.

In the hours after the drone incursion into Poland, Belarus got ahead of the Kremlin by issuing a statement that appeared to shift responsibility away from Minsk. In a statement, Maj. Gen. Pavel Muraveiko, the chief of the General Staff of the armed forces of Belarus, said Belarus tracked the drones and alerted the Poles and the Lithuanians. And in comments to state media after the drone incursion, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also appeared to deflect blame.

“We immediately, as early as possible, informed Poland. And what did we get in response?” Lukashenko complained. “Listen, it’s like a bunch of savages. They are stirring up tension out of nothing. They probably want us to respond adequately. Well, I’ve already warned a thousand times that we don’t want any wars or conflicts. We don’t want closed borders. But if we are faced with a fait accompli, we will be forced to react.”

And on the eve of Zapad’s climax, Belarus pardoned 52 political prisoners and released them into Lithuania, another gesture that has signaled Lukashenko’s willingness to chart a course somewhat independent from Moscow, especially if it means lifting some sanctions and less isolation in return. So, against the background of Zapad and its attendant saber-rattling, Lukashenko may be playing good cop to Putin’s bad cop.