What will members be considering as they vote for deputy leader? – LabourList

There are now just two candidates to be Labour’s deputy leader – Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell.

When the party lost Angela Rayner, there was a strong clamour that whoever replaced her should also be a northern woman. That now is inevitable. The contest now boils down to a woman from the north west of England and one from the north east.

North West Vs North East

While some in SW1 tend to use the term ‘northern’ as a catchall synonym for ‘not London’, there are actually real differences in the politics, histories and economic geographies of these regions.

Both regions have their own strong identities which might come into play during this contest as we see the candidates seek to differentiate themselves from each other. The North East is synonymous in the Labour mind with the miner’s strike, the Jarrow marches and the Durham Miner’s Gala. The North West with the birth of the cooperative movement, the Peterloo massacre and the Militant council in Liverpool.

But beyond their geographical differences, how might each candidate seek to define themselves against their opponent? How might they seek to define that opponent? And how will they appeal to the Labour membership?

READ MORE: ‘Corbynism failed, but Labour risks failure now too if it forgets why he rose’

Polling to date

In our most recent cabinet league table, Phillipson had a positive overall rating of +28 – the fifth highest in the cabinet and the highest woman behind Angela Rayner, the woman she is seeking to replace. She had, however, dropped three points from her previous ranking. Powell had a positive ranking too – though of just +4 (having dropped four points). This may be a result of her being in a lower profile job – there are no specific legislative achievements Leader of the House (as she then was) can point to. Though it might also speak to member’s disquiet over the handing of the welfare bill.

At the start of the contest – while who was going to try to run was still unknown – we worked with Survation to do some snap polling in which Phillipson had a significant lead over Powell. However, too much can’t yet be read into this, given that there were a number of candidates put to members who now face a binary choice.

PLP vs Government?

Since Powell’s sacking in the recent reshuffle, one of the most obvious differences between the two is that one now sits inside government while the other does not. This means that, of the two, only Phillipson is bound by collective cabinet responsibility.

While Powell was part of the government until very recently – indeed as Leader of the House, she was responsible for delivering the government’s agenda in Parliament – she has now been released from that responsibility and is free to portray herself as the champion of backbenchers who have been unhappy with both the legislation offered by the government and the way relationships between number 10 and the PLP have been managed.

Alternatively, Phillipson can point to a number of wins under her belt that are popular with members. Free school meals for younger children, free breakfast clubs and new nursery places are all things that have been implemented by the Education Secretary. These are real achievements that Phillipson can use to point to her ability to deliver in government.

Will Labour members choose to back someone whose pitch will be that they are an effective champion of Starmer’s government or someone who will offer to be more of a champion of the backbenches, and by proxy, members when divisions between number 10 and the PLP arise?

READ MORE: Labour’s deputy leadership election prompts questions for everyone

Phillipson is widely regarded as the Leadership’s favoured candidate. That brings enormous benefits when a role is as ill-defined as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party is – especially with the party in power. If you have the ear of the PM, that can be seen as a direct hotline to power.

However, MPs have been expressing their unhappiness at the Labour operation more openly and more often. If members sympathise, they may wish to send a message to the PM that their feelings – those of both members and MPs – matter in a democratic party by rejecting a candidate too seen the leadership favourite.

Watching how Phillipson and Powell navigate the fine line they will both want to tread between demonstrating both independence and loyalty will be interesting. As will which side of that line each falls – or is seen to fall.

Soft Left vs Moderates?

While it’s not a perfect spilt (these things never are, as other personal factors will always play their part) the nominations from MPs tend to show a backing for Powell from the ‘soft left’ and Phillipson from Labour moderates.

So far, Labour to Win, Progressive Britain and Labour First – organisations who campaign internally for more centrist Labour candidates – have already backed Phillipson who is widely seen as both the more moderate candidate and the Leadership’s choice to win.

When the contest started, I asked whether the ‘soft left’ would manage to cohere around a single candidate. On the morning of the final day of the short nominations process, the answer to that wasn’t clear, with both Powell and Emily Thornberry seeking this mantle. But with Thornberry dropping out, it became clear that Powell would gain the backing of the majority of MPs who consider themsevles ‘soft left’.

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At the time of writing, new ‘soft left’ organisation Mainstream and Open Labour (who have been involved in Mainstream’s establishment) have not yet endorsed a candidate. However, the  support of Andy Burnham, who is backing his fellow Greater Mancunian Lucy Powell makes it highly likely that, if they choose to endorse, it will be Powell.

Wither the ‘hard left’?

Meanwhile, the candidate of the ‘hard left’ Bell Ribeiro-Addy failed to come anywhere close to the nominations threshold. This demonstrates that the PLP is a very different beast from that of the past where this group held more sway (though rarely found themselves anywhere near a majority).

There are still a number of Labour members who do share their politics though. Will organisations like Momentum – so essential in electing Jeremy Corbyn leader – choose to sit this out? Or will they back Powell in the hope that in doing so, they can be part of a broader internal conversation?

It may be that they (ironically) choose a third way where MPs who backed Ribeiro-Addy give their endorsements individually while the organisation – and it’s machinery – sit the contest out.

Competing Narratives?

There are two narratives of this government and their first year in office and both are true.

The first is that Labour has set out a historic – and relatively radical – legislative agenda designed to boost growth, re-engineer our economy for the future and turn around ailing public services and other state-led activities. Measures to boost housebuilding – particularly social homes, reduce NHS waiting lists, bring down backlogs in the asylum system, set up GB Energy, bring railways into public ownership and water companies to heel are all either already bearing fruit or making legislative progress.

One complaint I hear regularly from Labour members is that the government does not have a coherent narrative about all the good it is doing. One approach to this contest is in being a champion of all the good Labour is already doing in office and a story about how much is still to come.

The second narrative is less positive and the chaos of this week has been a prime example. Labour have had a tough start – made harder by an appalling inheritance. Government is not easy under the best of circumstances and the state the country was left in after 14 years of the Tories meant that things were never going to be easy.

But there is a widespread sense among those who hit the doorsteps regularly that the government have made things a lot harder for them with missteps, unforced errors and sometimes baffling choices that they themselves struggle to properly explain.

The candidates will have to find a balance between these two narratives. Both will be competing to show that they can be the champion of member’s and the person best placed to tell a positive story of Labour’s achievements.

It will probably not be a case of members seeking to choose which of these narratives they believe. As I said – both are true. What members will be looking for will be which candidate weaves together a strong telling of the former with a convincing answer to the latter.

It was this balance that Angela Rayner was particular adept at. It will be why she will be exceptionally hard to replace. Whether Powell or Phillipson get the job, they have some very big shoes to fill.

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Blessing in disguise

Many in the party may well be thinking they could have done without this contest at this time. The leadership’s desire to be focused on talking to the country about how they are delivering in government is clear – even as it has proved impossible over the past fortnight. As the Labour Party starts a long internal conversation that outwards focus may seem further away than ever.

It’s been a tough week for Labour, but I would like to end this analysis with a note of optimism.

As we go into the competition proper, these two talented women now have an unexpected chance to compete to tell the best story about what a Labour government can, should, will and does mean. As a result, we might just get the chance for Labour to learn which of these messages works. Whoever wins, both will be spending the next few weeks and months competing to be one of the most prominent Labour voices in the country. To win, each will need to be the most compelling storyteller.

Part of that will come down to a competition of how skillfullly they tell these stories. But much of it will also be about the stories themselves. So while this contested was unwanted, both because no one wanted to see Angela leave and because few wanted to see Labour turn inwards, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. In giving Labour an unexpected testing ground for it best messages and messengers there is an opportunity for Labour to come out of this contest more coherent and full of experience of telling positive stories about itself.

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