Gulf states unite to respond to Israel’s attack on Qatar, but find few options – Egypt Independent

For decades, wealthy Gulf Arab states cast themselves as oases of stability in a region mired in conflict, building gleaming capitals with fast-growing economies powered by by millions of foreign workers drawn to economic opportunity and a tax-free lifestyle.

But this year, their sense of safety was shattered when two regional powers conducted a direct strike on a Gulf country for the first time. First, Iran targeted an American airbase in Qatar in June after the US struck its nuclear facilities. Then came Israel’s attack this week, targeting Hamas’ political leadership in Doha.

Gulf Arab states are rattled as a Gaza war that began thousands of miles from their borders nearly two years ago inches closer to home.

With few viable military options to retaliate, Qatar has vowed a “collective” regional response to Israel’s strikes. That response is currently “under consultation and discussion” with other partners, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday. A decision is expected at an Arab and Islamic summit in Doha this weekend.

Perhaps the most visible and immediate reaction came from the Gulf state that has the closest ties to Israel: the United Arab Emirates. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived in Doha with a large delegation less than 24 hours after the attack. Qatar was his first stop on a Gulf tour to coordinate a response to the attack that also took him to Bahrain and Oman. On Friday, the UAE summoned an Israeli diplomat to denounce what it called Israel’s “blatant and cowardly” attack.

Regional analysts told CNN that Gulf Arab states would likely be weighing options that demonstrate regional unity and deter further Israeli strikes, but could be constrained by limited viable options.

“We need to take a stand now because if (we) do not, it will be other Gulf capitals next,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, referring to Gulf nations.

Analysts say that one of the options could involve the UAE downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel or decreasing its involvement in the Abraham Accords, a normalization agreement between Israel and three Arab states that became US President Donald Trump’s biggest foreign policy achievement during his first term.

The UAE had been signaling discontent with Israel even before the strike on Doha. This week, Lana Nusseibeh, a senior UAE official, warned that reported Israeli plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would be a “red line” that would “betray the very spirit of the Abraham Accords.”

Qatar’s prime minister said that part of Doha’s response would be in the legal arena, including through international law. On Thursday, it successfully lobbied for a unanimous statement at the UN Security Council condemning the Israeli attack.

Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, said Gulf states haven’t previously significantly participated in proceedings against Israel at international courts, and that that could change.

“Gulf states so far have not played a key role in supporting these efforts, politically or financially. Gulf states could collectively decide to join those cases,” he said.

Another option is for Qatar to withdraw from its role as the go-to mediator between the US and some of its adversaries, analysts say.

Gulf states have had significant internal quarrels over the years but remain bound by mutual defense treaties signed decades ago.

Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf Arab countries could resort to activating and expanding the “Peninsula Shield Force” – a 1980s-era military pact intended to deter attacks on their nations.

“These clauses have so far been theoretical,” Alhasan said, but “now they could activate them, by creating a unified Gulf command, integrating air and missile defense system, building a more independent ingenious capability.”

Most of the seven Gulf states depend on US military hardware and host American bases, but recent perceived American failures to defend their territories could prompt the Arab nations to diversify their defense capabilities or demand stronger US security guarantees.

Sager said the Israeli attack could push the Gulf region to “enter into a serious and structured dialogue” with the Trump administration on the terms of their security partnership, and to “move beyond” just buying arms from the US and “toward clearer defense guarantees.” These could include accountability when US “commitments appear absent or ambiguous.”

Still, efforts to find a regional consensus may be limited by competing domestic interests among Gulf states that remain wary of jeopardizing their relationship with the US under a Trump administration that has been Israel’s biggest backer.

“Gulf states now realize that they’re not particularly well equipped to address the threat posed by Israel, because their national security is predicated on the defense partnership with the US – which has an explicit foreign defense policy giving Israel a qualitative military edge,” Alhasan said.

The trillions of dollars in revenue earned annually from the region’s oil and gas exports are strategically invested in global assets, which partially leverages the region’s soft power to secure influence in the world’s key decision-making centers.

Gulf states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE could utilize their vast sovereign wealth funds to impose trade limitations on Israel.

“They could decide to use their funds to boycott companies who have significant stakes in the Israeli economy,” Alhasan said.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar collectively pledged to invest around three trillion dollars in the US economy when Trump visited the region on his first foreign trip abroad during his second term as president.

“Those trillions the Gulf states are pumping into the US in the next decade are premised on a secure and safe Gulf space that can benefit from these investments too,” al-Saif said.

“But if we feel insecure, which is happening thanks to an American ally like Israel, the money can go somewhere else, whether to better secure the Gulf or earn better returns on their investments.”