Tactical voting played a crucial role in the 2024 general election, but with politics becoming even more volatile, it may be much harder for political parties to make it work next time.
At the last election, Labour’s huge parliamentary majority was balanced on the back of a very modest vote share, in part because of substantial anti-Conservative tactical voting. On the right, a small number of Reform supporters voted Conservative to try to keep Labour out, but overall the vote was far more split, proving catastrophic for the Tories.
But since July 2024, British politics has somehow become even more fragmented and chaotic. Voters hoping to cast a tactical vote may find themselves needing a qualification in psephology just to know which box to tick.
Labour and the Conservatives secured only 57% of the vote between them, their lowest ever share. Current polling suggests they could get no more than 40% between them, with maybe four parties getting over 15% of the vote. Seats which were once straightforward Labour-Conservative contests may now have three or even four parties potentially in contention – any one of which could scrape across the line with a very low vote share.
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To look at public understanding of this new electoral landscape, we asked respondents in a nationally representative survey to identify the parties they believed would come first and second in their constituency if an election were to be held now. We compared their answers to the results of YouGov’s latest MRP model, which projects how current voting intention would translate into results in individual constituencies.
We found that a mere 11% of respondents agreed with YouGov’s modelling of the top two parties in their seat, in the right order. And only one in five (22%) named the top two parties in any order—the minimum required for successful tactical voting.
Reform UK supporters were the most likely to be able to identify the top two parties predicted by the MRP. This should not be a surprise. YouGov think that Reform would be one of the top two parties in 480 seats, far more than Labour (391) and the Conservatives (180).
Supporters of political parties tend to be naturally optimistic about that party’s chances, usually assuming their preferred party is competitive in their area. In the case of Reform supporters, this optimism is justified. On the other hand, while Conservative supporters also expect their party to be in the top two, their assumptions are more often wrong because of the party’s current weak national position.
Knowledge of local dynamics varied by party:
- Reform UK: 33% identified the correct top two
- Labour: 26%
- Liberal Democrat: 22%
- Conservative: 17%
- Green Party: 13%
In constituencies where Reform is modelled to be in the top two, only one-third of Conservative voters recognised this. This could significantly hamper successful tactical voting by the third of Conservative voters who would be open to voting Reform. Conversely, in constituencies where YouGov believes the Conservatives to be the main right-wing challenger, only 39% of Reform voters correctly identified them as such. In these seats, those Reform voters who are open to voting Conservative to prevent a progressive candidate from winning may end up backing the wrong party.
READ MORE: Could an electoral pact help Labour win the next general election?
‘Battle of the bar charts’
In the last few months, there has been fevered discussion about a potential electoral pact between the Conservatives and Reform. But in 131 of the seats where YouGov now predicts a Reform win, Nigel Farage’s party did not finish in the top two at the last General Election, meaning the Conservatives would be expected to step aside in dozens of seats where they previously came second, something they would be unlikely to accept.
Instead, at the next election, we may see a battle of the bar charts between the parties on the right: the Conservatives citing 2024 results to argue they are best placed to beat the left, while Reform pointing to recent MRP models to argue the opposite. Without a unified strategy, right-wing voters may split their votes.
On the progressive side, around half of Labour voters in seats where the Liberal Democrats are competitive, and vice versa, fail to correctly identify who is best placed to win. But this kind of confusion was seen before the last election.
Seven months before the general election, Labour Together research found that only one in five voters could name the top two parties in their constituency. Despite that, Labour and the Lib Dems managed a highly effective informal coordination. By strategically allocating campaign resources, the two parties were able to signal to voters which of them had the best chance in each seat.
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But this is not all good news for progressives. A concern for the left is the underestimation of Reform’s strength. Only about 25% of Labour, Lib Dem, and Green voters in Reform-competitive seats correctly identified Reform as a top-two contender. This matters.
Research by Steve Akehurst indicates that progressive voters are more likely to vote tactically for Labour when Reform is perceived as the main threat rather than the Conservatives. Some progressives may not recognise Reform for the threat that it is, and believe it is “safe” to vote for their preferred party rather than for Labour.
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‘The most secure route to power is winning support who back Labour on its own terms’
It is hard to blame voters for being confused. In December 2024, MRP models were predicting Reform would gain around 76 seats. Within seven months, this has changed dramatically, with YouGov now modelling that they could gain 271. With this level of volatility, parties will find it risky to rely too heavily on tactical voting.
Labour should bear in mind that the most secure and sustainable route to power is by winning the support of voters who back the party on its own terms — not solely through tactical voting.
Political parties should aim to earn positive votes that reflect genuine support for their values and policies, and build a real mandate to govern and deliver lasting change, rather than attempting to scrape through on the basis of voter guesswork.
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