UFC Cage Locks: Can former champions hold their ground in Abu Dhabi?

The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for a Fight Night card featuring multiple former champions and a slew of promising rising contenders.

Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker looks to hand grappling ace Reinier de Ridder his first loss in the UFC in the main event, plus former bantamweight champ Petr Yan looks to hold his spot in the rankings when he meets the surging Marcus McGhee in the co-main event.

Canada’s Marc-André Barriault will look to build off a May knockout win as the underdog against standout striker Shara Magomedov who aims to bounce back from his first pro loss.

The undercard also features a fan-friendly flyweight matchup between Asu Almabayev and Jose Ochoa and a 205-pound contest between frequent finishers Nikita Krylov and Bogdan Guskov. Bryce Mitchell competes as a bantamweight for the first time in his UFC career when he goes up against Said Nurmagomedov and former multiple-time jiu-jitsu world champion makes his UFC debut against Martin Buday in the opening bout of the card.

All 24 fighters competing on the card successfully made weight Friday. Below is the projected bout order plus full predictions for UFC Abu Dhabi:

— Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder

— Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee

— Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-André Barriault

— Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa

— Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov

— Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov

— Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal 

— Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear

— Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci

— Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana

— Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen

— Martin Buday vs. Marcus Buchecha

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

Cage Lock: Carlos Leal -500

Favourite: Marcus Buchecha -300

Underdog: Said Nurmagomedov +115

Dart Throw: Davey Grant by decision +500

Leal’s high output should be an issue for Salikhov, who has historically been very low output and as long as Leal does not run into anything big, he should get a finish or cruise to a decision. … Buchecha is making his debut and I expect that he either finishes Buday with a submission or controls him for the duration of the bout. … Nurmagomedov will have an advantage on the feet against Mitchell and I do not think his grappling deficit is by much. I like his value as an underdog. … Grant is a gamer and I think that if he gets out of the first round, that winning a decision is very much on the table.

Cage Lock: Marcus Buchecha -300

Favourite: Ibo Aslan -285

Underdog: Bogdan Guskov +165

Dart Throw: Marc-Andre Barriault +425

I’m excited for this card because there are so many pick’em fight lines which could make for some interesting parlays. I think Marcus Buchecha is a lock to win in his UFC debut and at -300 that is still decent value if paired with other props on the card. … I think Ibo Aslan will cruise past Billy Elekana. Ibo is the better fighter and Elekana has questionable cardio. I’m surprised he’s not a bigger favourite. … Bogdan Guskov has scary power and at these odds he is great value for an upset. If he can avoid Nikita Krylov’s wrestling, he has a clear path to victory with his damaging strikes. … Win or lose, Marc-Andre Barriault always brings it. Shara Magomedov is a much more dynamic fighter, but if “Powerbar” can close the distance this fight could go either way. This could be the fight of the night and what a great story it would be for Canadian MMA.

Cage Lock: Petr Yan -400

Favourite: Robert Whittaker -142

Underdog: Tabatha Ricci +165

Dart Throw: Yan by KO/TKO/DQ +400

There probably are safer picks on this card than going against a dangerous and confident fighter on a roll like Marcus McGhee but Yan is one of the best pound-for-pound talents in the sport and the level of competition faced isn’t even close. I’ll double up on Yan and say he gets it done inside the distance for the first time in a while even though this matchup is projected to go to the scorecards. … Sticking with another former champ as my fave. Reinier de Ridder is definitely a live dog but part of me thinks Whittaker’s speed, movement and striking will result in a highlight knockout. … I view Ribas vs. Ricci as more of a pick’em so the value here is on Ricci.

Three legs: Leal + Buchecha + Yan

Parlay odds: +100 (to win: $100)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 24 EVENTS (updated July 21)

2025 winnings: +$330 (on $100 bets)

AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (51-44-1, +14.76 units)

Cage Lock: 20-4 (+$13.63)

Favourite: 11-13 (-$702.79)

Underdog: 14-9-1 (+$1,215.24)

Dart throw: 6-18 (+$950)

DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (51-42-3, -2.97 units)

Cage Lock: 21-3 (+$103.22)

Favourite: 14-9-1 (-$221.37)

Underdog: 14-9-1 (+$810.24)

Dart throw: 2-21-1 (-$990)

MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (43-49-4, -11.22 units)

Cage Lock: 18-6 (-$12.23)

Favourite: 15-9 (+$89.86)

Underdog: 9-13-2 (+$435)

Dart throw: 1-21-2 (-$1,635)

Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)