The view from India newsletter: Will the Iran-Israel ceasefire hold?

(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

I was in central Doha when Iran launched missiles at the U.S. base in Qatar on June 23. I was waiting at a traffic signal, with a friend, when we heard the first sound, at around 7.40 pm. Then we saw fire streaking across the sky. Missiles from one direction and interceptors from the other, followed by loud noises. Glowing fragments fell like dying stars and vanished into Doha’s skyline. Within a few minutes it was over. It was the 11th day of the war between Israel and Iran. Earlier in the day, the U.S. embassy in Doha had asked American citizens to stay indoors. Qatar had temporarily suspended its air space in the evening. The U.S. had moved many of its aircraft from the al-Udeid base in Qatar, America’s largest in West Asia. They knew an Iranian attack, in retaliation for the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, was imminent. Life in Doha, which is particularly bustling in the evenings during the summer months, was barely affected. Police vehicles were stationed at the city’s major intersections (Indians in Doha have given their own nicknames to the signals such as the Sword (Vaal) Signal, Crazy Signal, etc.), but traffic continued to flow. People were out dining and shopping even after the attack. Just a few hours later, the air space was reopened.

President Donald Trump also moved fast. In the early morning of June 24, Mr. Trump “thanked” Iran for letting him know in advance about their attack plans. He said nobody was injured, signalling de-escalation. In a series of social media posts that followed, Mr. Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, bringing what he called the ‘12-day war’ to an end. The war began on June 13 when Israel started attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and killing its top Generals and nuclear scientists. Iran responded with volleys of ballistic missiles. On June 21, the U.S. joined Israel’s war, bombing Iran’s key nuclear facilities — Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. During the 12-day war, Israel established aerial superiority and carried out massive attacks across Iran. Tehran hit Israel back hard with hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones. According to Mr. Trump, both sides wanted a ceasefire. He claimed that American strikes “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities. Does that mean that the conflict is over?

The ceasefire appears to be holding, for now. But that doesn’t mean that the crisis is over. First of all, Israel’s track record when it comes to honouring ceasefires is not very good. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force in November 2024, and Israel still bombs Lebanon at will. On January 19, Israel agreed to a three-phase ceasefire in Gaza, but it ended it and returned to war after phase 1.

Two, despite Mr. Trump’s claims that he has destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities, evidence has emerged that his claims were not true. Early assessments by American intelligence agencies, which were leaked to the media, claimed that the Israel-American strikes set back the Iranian nuclear programme only by a few months. Even if American attacks destroyed the physical infrastructure of Iranian nuclear facilities, it remains unclear where Iran was keeping its enriched uranium stockpile and most advanced centrifuges. Iran has dispersed its nuclear programme from 2018, when Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal, and ramped up production of uranium in recent years. According to Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has the industrial and technological wherewithal to resume enriching uranium in a few months. Now look at statements coming out of Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has termed the war a “historic victory”. But no Israeli leader has backed Mr. Trump’s claim that Israel’s nuclear programme was obliterated. On the contrary, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on June 27 that the international community has “an obligation to prevent, through any effective means”, Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. This means even the Israeli Foreign Minister doesn’t believe that Iran’s nuclear programme has been destroyed.

The final question is: what will Iran do next? After the Israel-American attack, Iran will have an even greater incentive to build a bomb as a deterrent against future strikes. If Iran’s nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, Israel and the U.S. will stay on high alert, closely monitoring every move Iran makes. If they think Iran is taking steps towards building a bomb, Israel may strike again, dragging the U.S. back in as well. Having weathered the initial storm, Iran is likely to rush to rebuild its conventional arsenal, replenish missile stockpiles and launchers and strengthen its missile defences — its weakest link. This means the conflict is far from over. Both sides have bought time, and are now preparing for the next round, perhaps a more dangerous one.

The Top Five

1. What is the legality of U.S. strikes on Iran?

Most states remain wary of endorsing the legality of pre-emptive self-defence, as the absence of an imminent threat makes the doctrine highly susceptible to misuse, experts told The Hindu– writes Aaratrika Bhaumik.

2. Zohran Mamdani | Manhattan’s progressive man

The Democrat ran a grassroots campaign focusing on livelihood-based ‘bread-and-butter economic issues’ and upholding principled positions, such as his strong opposition to Israel’s ‘genocide’ in Gaza, to take lead in the New York mayoral primary, writes Srinivasan Ramani.

3. First batch of pilgrims visit Mansarovar, appeal for more yatra slots to be opened

First batch included only 36 pilgrims despite maximum strength of 50 due to withdrawals for health reasons; pilgrims have visited Mount Kailash and Mansarovar Lake and will cross back into India on July 1, reports Suhasini Haidar.

4. Heartbreaking to see people seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza risking their lives: U.N. human rights chief

As of June 25, 2025, a total of 598 persons seeking aid have been reportedly killed, High Commissioner Volker Türk said, reports Meera Srinivasan.

5. What is behind the special relationship between Israel and US?

Since 1967, U.S.-Israel relations have strengthened significantly;while the U.S. backed the Balfour Declaration and recognised Israel in 1948, early ties were tense, especially during the 1956 Suez Crisis and over Israel’s nuclear programme; the 1967 war marked a turning point, positioning Israel as a key U.S. ally against Soviet influence, writes Stanly Johny.

Published – July 01, 2025 03:17 pm IST