Bank of Thailand lowers Chinese tourism projection by 30% – Thailand Business News

The Bank of Thailand has revised its foreign arrival projection for 2025, lowering the expected number from 39.5 million to 37.5 million. This adjustment is largely due to a significant decline in Chinese tourists, whose arrivals are estimated to drop by nearly 30%, reaching only 5 million compared to 6.7 million in 2024 and 11 million before the pandemic in 2019.

Key Points

• Reduced Tourism Forecast: The Bank of Thailand has downgraded its foreign arrival projection for 2025 from 39.5 million to 37.5 million. A significant factor is the sharp decline in Chinese tourists, estimated to drop by nearly 30% to just 5 million arrivals, compared to 6.7 million in 2024 and 11 million pre-pandemic in 2019.
• Economic Concerns: The central bank is monitoring the broader economic implications, considering two possible scenarios related to U.S. trade tariffs—one with lower tariffs and another with higher tariffs, which could further impact foreign arrivals.
• Tourism Behavior Shift: The drop in Chinese visitors may not be solely due to safety concerns in Thailand but could reflect a shift in travel preferences, with more Chinese tourists opting for domestic destinations or alternative locations like Japan.

Economic concerns are also influencing the forecast, particularly regarding potential trade tariffs from the U.S. The central bank is considering two possible scenarios—one with lower tariffs and another with higher tariffs—which could further impact tourism numbers. While concerns about safety in Thailand may play a role, the drop in Chinese visitors appears to be linked more to changing travel habits, with many now favoring domestic destinations or opting for trips to Japan instead.

Despite efforts to boost tourism, slower economic growth is expected. Research groups, including KKP Research and Kasikorn Research Center, predict Thailand’s economy will see less support from tourism, manufacturing, and exports. If tourism is to compensate for the downturn in manufacturing, Thailand may need to attract as many as 70 million visitors annually by 2030. Additionally, while tourist numbers continue to grow, spending per visitor is declining, with Kasikorn Research forecasting a 3% decrease in revenue from foreign travelers.

What caused the decline in Chinese tourism?

The decline in Chinese tourists visiting Thailand can be attributed to several factors:

1. Safety Concerns: Incidents such as the kidnapping of a Chinese actor and reports of organized crime targeting Chinese visitors have led to a perception that Thailand may not be a safe destination. Additionally, recent earthquakes and images of collapsed buildings in Bangkok have further eroded confidence in Thailand’s safety.
2. Changing Travel Preferences: Many Chinese tourists, particularly younger travelers, are opting for new destinations like Vietnam and Kazakhstan instead of traditional routes like Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore. This shift reflects a growing desire for unique travel experiences.
3. Economic Factors: The Chinese economy is facing challenges, including a real estate crisis and high youth unemployment, which have reduced discretionary spending on international travel. Additionally, the cost of flights and accommodations remains high, making domestic travel within China more appealing.
4. Chinese Government Policies: The Chinese government is actively promoting domestic tourism by developing new attractions and infrastructure, encouraging citizens to travel within China rather than abroad.
5. Negative Media Coverage: The Chinese blockbuster movie No More Bets, which portrays Thailand in a negative light, has influenced public perception. Additionally, reports of organ theft and other criminal activities have discouraged Chinese tourists from visiting.
6. Intense Regional Competition: Other Asian countries, such as Japan, Vietnam, and Laos, have introduced visa-free policies to attract Chinese tourists, making them more competitive alternatives to Thailand.
7. Declining Group Tours: While independent travelers (FITs) still visit Thailand, the number of Chinese tour groups has significantly decreased, particularly from smaller cities.

How can Thailand attract Chinese tourists again?

Despite these challenges, Thailand is working to restore confidence among Chinese tourists through safety campaigns and promotional efforts.

Thailand can employ several strategies to regain Chinese tourists and restore confidence in its tourism sector. Enhancing security measures and increasing police presence in key tourist areas would help address concerns about crime. The government could also rebuild trust through media campaigns by inviting Chinese influencers and journalists to showcase Thailand’s attractions in a positive light.

Upgrading tourism infrastructure, such as improving transportation and accommodations, would make visiting Thailand more convenient. Offering targeted promotions, including discounted travel packages and partnerships with airlines to provide direct flights, could attract more visitors. Additionally, expanding digital payment options like Alipay would cater to Chinese tourists’ preferences.

Adjusting to changing travel habits is crucial. While traditional hotspots like Bangkok and Phuket remain popular, Thailand could promote lesser-known destinations and unique experiences such as eco-tourism, wellness retreats, and cultural heritage tours. Strengthening diplomatic ties with China, streamlining visa processes, and possibly adopting policies similar to Vietnam’s visa exemption for Chinese travelers would make Thailand more accessible.

Rather than focusing solely on large tour groups, Thailand could tailor experiences for independent travelers who prefer customized itineraries and online booking options. Leveraging its soft power by highlighting Thai culture, cuisine, and entertainment would further appeal to Chinese tourists, encouraging more immersive travel experiences. By taking these steps, Thailand could work toward regaining its position as a top destination for Chinese visitors.