Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Oilers vs. Golden Knights

But their upcoming second-round series represents just their second-ever playoff meeting.

In the first, in 2023, Vegas downed Edmonton in six games — one year after missing the playoffs while the Oilers took their first big step up in the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl years with a push into Round 3. It was a challenge Edmonton wasn’t quite up to the task for yet, still building the scar tissue that all young teams must while putting the final pieces in place around its core.

Today, both teams have made a Stanley Cup Final the past two years, with Vegas winning in 2023 and Edmonton losing the 2024 final in seven games. The build-up is in the past for both — these versions of the two teams each have designs on winning the Stanley Cup, and it’s going to be a tough pill to swallow for whoever has to bow out early in Round 2.

Both teams arrive after tough first-round matchups in which they only got better as the games went along. Edmonton, after dropping its first two against Los Angeles, won four in a row to stun the Kings. Vegas, meanwhile, was given a scare by a healthy and dangerously underrated Minnesota squad early, falling behind 2-1 before winning the last three straight.

So, both come to Round 2 on a roll and settling into their playoff groove. Who has the edge and what can we expect to see in this series? We present to you our Round 2 preview for the Pacific Division title.

Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Oilers X-Factor: Goaltending

If you were told ahead of time that Stuart Skinner would have a worse Round 1 save percentage than any other starting goaltender (.810), you’d be excused for thinking the Oilers were doomed. Skinner played just two games in the opening round, allowed 11 goals before the Oilers, on their back foot, turned to Calvin Pickard, who had only started two prior playoff games.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Pickard was up to the challenge. He wasn’t necessarily lights out — he posted an .893 save percentage, 2.93 GAA and a minus-0.9 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck) — but he didn’t make a game-breaking mistake. In his four starts, only once did Pickard allow the Kings to tie the game or regain the lead after Edmonton had gone in front.

And yet, we’d be surprised if we didn’t see Skinner again in these playoffs. This same thing happened last year, when Pickard had to sub in for a struggling Skinner to start two games against the Vancouver Canucks. He went 1-1, allowing five goals, before Edmonton turned back to Skinner, who closed out the series and then got hot in the next round.

Of all the teams into Round 2, Edmonton currently had the worst team save percentage (Winnipeg, heading into Game 7, could still finish below) and that’s not a stat you can endure over four playoff rounds. While Pickard is expected to begin the series in net, the Oilers need better play and more stability from whoever they turn to as the games go on and the competition gets stiffer.

Edmonton would love for this series to turn into a track meet — while the Oilers have certainly grown to be a better defensive team in recent years, their bread and butter is still offence. No team scored more goals per game in Round 1 and no one that advanced to Round 2 had a more successful power play in the opening round.

If this does become a high-scoring back-and-forth, Vegas needs all hands on deck. They scored three goals per game in the first round, which was among the lowest from teams that won their series (Dallas and Winnipeg, both heading to Game 7s, are the only others that could move on who scored less often).

While Pavel Dorofeyev isn’t going to be given the toughest minutes in defensive scenarios, nor is he someone you’d expect to be in a Conn Smythe conversation a couple rounds from now, he was Vegas’s breakout player this season and led the team with 35 goals. While 13 of those came on the power play, he also tied for the team lead in even-strength markers.

In Round 1, Dorofeyev saw a lot of power-play time but scored only once — a second-period goal in Game 1 that earned the Golden Knights a mid-game lead. For the rest of the series, Dorofeyev had one secondary assist and was a minus-6. Vegas needs him to be the offensive contributor he was in the regular season if this series becomes goal-happy, especially if Edmonton’s netminders remain shaky. Sometimes it takes young, inexperienced players time (even years) to settle into the demands of post-season hockey, and this is Dorofeyev’s first real exposure to this level after playing just one post-season game last year. It’d be a great sign for Vegas if he’s on the score sheet more often against Edmonton.

Key Stat: Zero goals, three assists in two games

That represents McDavid and Draisaitl’ combined production in the final two games of their Round 1 series against Los Angeles as the Oilers pulled away.

What’s so key about this is that, usually, the Oilers only triumph if their two big horses pull them far enough — when they slow down, the whole team tends to follow. But in 3-1 and 6-4 wins over Los Angeles in Games 5 and 6 to close out the series, these two were not at their most productive. Draisaitl’s only point was a secondary assist on an empty-netter, while McDavid picked up two primary assists — one on that same empty-netter, the other on a first-period goal in Game 6.

By the end of Round 1, Edmonton’s depth advantage over the Kings was being lauded. Evander Kane scored the important tying goal in Game 5 minutes after Los Angeles opened the scoring, while Mattias Janmark put in the game-winner. Connor Brown and Trent Frederic both had multi-point efforts in the series-clinching game, while Adam Henrique scored a tying goal very early in the first period.

For Edmonton to have a shot against Vegas, all these other players must continue to contribute on the score sheet and in the tough areas of the ice. After a slow start, this became an important thing for Edmonton to take away from Round 1.

The most direct way is that McDavid and Draisaitl simply take over with memorable series and will Edmonton into the conference final, as we’ve seen before. But if the end of the first round is any indication, and all parts of the forward lines and defence pairs are evolving into the best versions of themselves, then the Oilers will have plenty of trouble to throw at Vegas — from the dangerous star scoring to the gritty action of the depth lines and effective play from the bottom of the defence pairs.

It’s imperative for the situation in net to settle, whether Pickard keeps the job and runs with it or Skinner returns to form if called upon. It’s also very important for the power play to keep humming. Although the Oilers come out of Round 1 looking great on the man advantage, they were the 12th-best unit in the regular season, while Vegas finished at No. 2. The Golden Knights’ regular-season penalty kill ranked 26th in the league, so this is a unit the Oilers could swarm and jump all over. While Edmonton’s PK left something to be desired, this is an area of the game where they could come out on top. Winning the special-teams battle would be a good indicator that things are going the Oilers’ way.

How the Golden Knights win

Vegas has its own core of star players that can tip the scales, but not in exactly the same way as Edmonton’s leaders. In Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Vegas has a couple of the NHL’s better two-way forwards who will be challenged to slow down McDavid and Draisaitl and, if they can, will immediately give their team a distinct advantage. The Golden Knights also have the edge on the blue line — especially if the Oilers remain without Mattias Ekholm — since Vegas can throw Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore over the boards and virtually ensure that at least one of them is on the ice at all times. That core five of players (Eichel, Stone, Hanifin, Pietrangelo, Theodore) are the centre of Vegas’ team defence, and if their analytical numbers are glowing their team is probably going to be in control.

There’s something else to watch for in the goalie battle in this series as well. We should note that the Golden Knights came out of the first round with an even worse team save percentage at 5-on-5 than the Oilers (.890 compared to .898). Adin Hill was pulled in Game 3 against Minnesota, had an overall .880 save percentage and ranked 22nd out of 25 goalies who played in Round 1 in goals saved above expected. This was a sneaky sore spot for the Golden Knights in the opening round. When Vegas won its Stanley Cup two years ago, Hill was mostly solid throughout the playoff run. If he can find his way back it would give Vegas a jolt, but if he continues to struggle as he did against Minnesota, it may force the Golden Knights to turn to their backup again and put them in a very difficult spot.