It’s Tuesday morning and Canadians still don’t know the shape of their next Parliament.
What they do know is that the Liberals have won re-election, taking the most seats in the House of Commons for a fourth consecutive election.
As of 9:51 a.m., the Liberals have been elected in 155 ridings and are leading in another 13. The Conservatives won’t challenge the Grits for government but they’re sitting a close second in the seat standings — elected in 133 and leading in 11 more.
In the last Parliament, the Liberals mostly relied on the NDP to pass legislation and maintain the confidence of the House, and despite the worst performance in NDP history, the party can still play this role as kingmaker, after winning five seats in Monday’s vote, and leading in another two.
The Bloc Quebecois also had a disappointing night, winning 21 seats and leading in another two — down from 32 in 2021.
And finally Green Leader Elizabeth May won her Vancouver Island riding but her party failed to nab a seat elsewhere.
If those numbers hold, the Liberals can likely tap their progressive counterparts in the NDP and Greens to wield a working majority in the House without relying on the quixotic Bloc.
But there’s still much to play for, because despite hours of ballot counting, a majority can’t be ruled out.
The Liberals would only need to flip four seats to get past the 172-seat threshold.
What could they pick off? For starters, Terrebonne, Que., where the Bloc is only leading by 28 votes.
Then there’s the Nunavut, where the NDP is leading by 58 votes.
The NDP is also holding a narrow 308-vote lead in Vancouver Kingsway, while the Conservatives are trying to fend off the competition in Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, where they boast a 359-vote cushion.
And that’s not to mention a handful of undecided races in southern Ontario, including in the Greater Toronto Area, Kitchener-Waterloo and Hamilton-Niagara.
Buckle up folks, we’re not done yet.
And that’s why the iPolitics’ live blog is back to help you follow the latest developments.
12:10 p.m.
Another riding that still hasn’t been called is Cloverdale-Langely City, B.C. It was won by the Tories by over 50 points in a December byelection. It’s a close one, with the Conservatives ahead by 900 votes. But Liberals on the ground don’t think they’ll close the gap #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/KVkzul5oZU
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 29, 2025
12:00 p.m.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is the first (and perhaps only) party leader to go before the cameras on Tuesday, where he discussed his “mixed feelings” following last night’s election result.
The separatist party lost nearly a third of its caucus on Monday night, though their 23 projected seats may still give them the balance of power, alongside the NDP, in a Liberal minority government.
Blanchet, however, was less interested in discussing the arithmetic of Parliament, and instead emphasized that he “lost some very close friends,” namely Alain Therrien, formerly the party’s House leader, and Rene Villemure.
“I could talk about the balance of power and relative numbers, but I’ve decided not to do that,” he said in French.
The Bloc leader also called for cooperation and a pause on Parliament’s hyper-partisanship for “about a year,” so that Canada can put forward a collaborative approach in any future negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Blanchet, who called Trump an “incompetent brute,” has been extremely critical of what he has described as the president’s outsized impact on the federal campaign, adding that Trump’s influence on Canadian politics “makes Chinese interference quite laughable.”
As for his personal future, Blanchet was pressed on why he should stay on as Bloc leader, considering his party lost seats, to which he said that he still has support from the Bloc’s caucus and membership, noting that “as long as that remains, I will remain, because I have a lot of work to do.”
Blanchet also said he expects to have conversations with the other party leaders within the “coming hours.”
11:00 a.m.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford spoke to reporters at the provincial legislature this morning, including iPolitics‘ very own Barbara Patrocinio, who asked the premier if he regretted comments he made about the Conservatives’ federal campaign effort.
“I’m focused on whoever is going to help Ontario, that’s who I want to work with,” he said. “I have the make sure the focus us on driving… economic prosperity and that’s what I’m focused on.”
Ford was also asked about whether he would consider a run at the federal Conservative leadership, if Pierre Poilievre is forced out, to which he emphasized that he is “focused” on Ontario.
After the election results, it appears that the rift between provincial and federal Conservatives got worse, with some MP directly blaming Ford.
I asked if he regrets any of his comments about CM Jenni Byrne or PP himself during the campaign.#CanadaElection2025 #cdnpoli #onpoli pic.twitter.com/uq0WmAfF1D— Barbara Patrocinio (@BarbaraPatroci) April 29, 2025
10:40 a.m.
In a post on social media, Elections Canada has confirmed that they have resumed counting ballots, with the expectation that “preliminary results for all ridings” will be available later today.
At last check, there’s 568 polls in ridings across the country that have yet to report.
Counting in front of witnesses has resumed this morning, and we expect preliminary results for all ridings to be available today. (2/2)
— Elections Canada (@ElectionsCan_E) April 29, 2025
10:27 a.m.
It’s time to start the post-mortem(s).
But first we need to understand our starting points. How are the parties gauging success?
A Liberal source said if you compare where the party was a few months ago, Monday night was an overwhelming success — a party ripping victory out of the jaws of defeat. But if you compare to where the party was only a few weeks or days ago, it’s a disappointing, underperformance that raises serious questions about why the Liberals fell flat in usually reliable Ontario of all places.
It’s the same thing for the Conservatives. Back in January, they were poised to win a massive majority. But a few days ago, they seemed unlikely to match Erin O’Toole’s 2021 performance. Leader Pierre Poilievre took the party to its highest vote share since 1988 but lost in his own riding.
It’s a similar equation for the Bloc — seemingly destined to win Official Opposition in December but avoiding the wipe out predicted a couple of weeks ago.
There’s no such grey area for the NDP. The party suffered the worst performance in its history and is now looking for a new leader.
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